Inflow modelling under changing environmental conditions upstream of Rusumo Falls

The Regional Rusumo Falls Hydroelectric Project on the Akagera river is currently under construction within the framework of the Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program (NELSAP) on behalf of Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania. The project site and the main inflowing rivers, Nyabarongo-Akagera and Ruvubu, are located in the boundary region of these three countries. This paper explores how hydropower generation may be affected by a river avulsion using model analyses and observations.